Mortality assessment in patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a comparative study of specific and general severity indices.

OBJECTIVE This study compared the general and specific severity indices to assess the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis at a polyvalent intensive care unit. METHODS This retrospective study included 108 patients who were diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis from July 1, 1999 to March 31, 2012. Their demographic and clinical data were collected, and the following severity indices were calculated: Ranson, Osborne, Blamey and Imrie, Balthazar, POP, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA. The discriminative power of these indices with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital was assessed using the area under the ROC curve. RESULTS The demographic data of the surviving and deceased patients did not significantly differ at baseline. The mortality rates were 27% and 39% at the intensive care unit and hospital, respectively. The severity indices that exhibited the greatest discriminative power with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital were the POP 0, POP 24, SOFA (at admission, 24 hours, 48 hours, and discharge), SAPS II, and APACHE II. CONCLUSION The POP performed better than the other indices (aROC>0.8) at admission and 24 hours later (as originally described). The general physiological dysfunction indices also exhibited reasonable discriminative power (aROC=0.75-0.8), which was unlike the remaining pancreatitis specific indices, whose discriminative power was lower.